Recently, inquiries for memory chips have surged sharply. Behind the prosperity of the category lies a huge market bubble. The skyrocketing prices and supply-demand imbalance of products such as DDR4 and DDR5 have brought dual challenges of price negotiation and decision-making to purchasers. Based on the current market pattern and industry trends, the following targeted decision-making suggestions are provided for electronic component purchasers to help them accurately grasp the direction in the volatile market.

DRAM: Shortage and Price Hikes Become the Main Theme, and the Shortage Will Persist

DRAM is the core category of this price surge, covering three major series: DDR4, DDR5 and HBM. Three giants, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, monopolize 95% of the global market.In pursuit of higher profits, these giants have shifted a large amount of production capacity to HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which directly leads to a sharp contraction in the supply of DDR4 and DDR5, triggering a severe market shortage.

Third-party data shows that the contract prices of various DRAM products generally rose by more than 40% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The spot price of DDR5 2Gbx8 chips surged by as much as 307%, and the increase of DDR4 1Gbx8 also reached 158%.Second-tier manufacturers such as Nanya, Winbond, and CXMT rely on giants for wafer supply. Given the tight production capacity of the giants themselves, second-tier manufacturers are unable to fill the market gap. It is expected that the shortage of DDR4 and DDR5 will last until 2026 or even longer.

NAND Flash: Sufficient Production Capacity with Moderate Price Fluctuations

In sharp contrast to the shortage of DRAM, the NAND Flash market has a stable supply. Leading manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Kioxia have sufficient production capacity, and there is basically no shortage problem.Even though the contract price is expected to rise by 33-38% in the first quarter of 2026, the overall fluctuation range is far lower than that of DRAM, so purchasers do not need to be overly anxious.

NOR Flash: Loose Supply and Stable Competitive Pattern

The NOR Flash market is showing a trend of production capacity expansion. Mainstream manufacturers such as Winbond, Macronix and GigaDevice are not occupied by major customers like NVIDIA, but instead continue to expand production capacity.

Its technical characteristics are more suitable for small-capacity code storage, and the application scenarios are relatively stable. At present, the market supply is loose, and there is strong room for price negotiation.

Precise Decision-Making: Category-Specific Procurement Strategies and Bargaining Skills

DRAM Procurement: Prioritize Production Capacity Locking and Flexibly Balance Costs

1. Prioritize signing Long-Term Agreements (LTA). Leading terminal manufacturers have ensured supply continuity through this method. Faced with the continuous shortage, relying solely on spot procurement is likely to put purchasers in a passive position in terms of price.Try to bypass traditional distribution channels and directly negotiate long-term agreements with original manufacturers or core agents to lock in basic production capacity and a relatively stable price range.
2. Reasonably match product specifications. Select models according to different application scenarios. For non-core scenarios, DDR4 can be appropriately used to control costs.If core businesses need to upgrade to DDR5, plan the procurement volume in advance to avoid paying a 50%-60% premium for emergency needs.
3. Expand domestic substitution channels. Domestic manufacturers such as Longsys and CXMT have achieved mass production, which can be used as supplementary supply sources.The price of their products is 15%-20% lower than that of imported brands, which can effectively reduce the overall procurement cost.

NAND Flash Procurement: Stock Up in Batches on Demand and Seize the Initiative in Price Negotiation

1. There is no need to stock up in large quantities at one time. Procure in batches according to the production plan. Take advantage of the market environment with sufficient production capacity to compare prices and negotiate with different suppliers to obtain better procurement terms.
2. NAND Flash is characterized by high density and low cost, making it suitable for large-capacity data storage.When purchasing, focus on checking parameters such as interface type and read/write speed. There is no need to blindly pursue high-end models; take cost performance as the core decision-making basis.

NOR Flash Procurement: Optimize Supplier Structure and Lock in Long-Term Prices

1. Expand the range of supplier choices. Manufacturers such as Winbond, Macronix and GigaDevice are all expanding production capacity, resulting in sufficient supply competition.Connect with multiple suppliers at the same time to obtain more favorable quotes through price comparison.
2. In view of the loose market supply, it is possible to agree on a phased fixed price with core suppliers to avoid the impact of short-term market fluctuations on procurement costs, which is especially suitable for long-term and stable production needs.

Key Notes for Procurement Decision-Making

1. Beware of price bubble traps. The current price increase of DRAM has hit a record high. Purchasers need to conduct a rational assessment based on their own cost-bearing capacity to avoid budget overruns caused by blindly chasing price increases.
2. Strictly inspect material quality. Refurbished and disassembled materials are prone to appear during market fluctuations. Choose reliable suppliers when purchasing to avoid production accidents.
3. Avoid Minimum Order Quantity (MOQ) risks. For small-batch procurement, confirm the supplier's minimum order quantity in advance to avoid forced over-purchasing due to failure to meet the batch threshold, which will cause capital occupation and inventory backlog.
4. Establish an inventory early warning mechanism. For shortage categories such as DDR4 and DDR5, set a reasonable safety stock and predict supply risks in advance.

From the perspective of memory chip procurement decision priority, HBM > DDR5 > DDR4 > NAND Flash > NOR Flash. This priority also applies in the case of bidding for excess inventory. If you need to further discuss the supply trends of specific brands and models, please get in touch with our team.